ETH Sentiment

Polymarket prediction markets

ETH/USDT

$2,300

BULLISH

56.3% up

Last update: 12:07 PM UTC

Pivot Strikes

Strike price closest to 50% probability for each date

May 1

$2K

24%

May 2

$2K

37%

May 3

$2K

40%

May 4

$2K

43%

May 5

$2K

45%

May 6

$2K

46%

May 7

$2K

46%

Fair Value Analysis

Normal

Historical probabilities vs Polymarket odds (30d lookback)

μ: -0.00%

σ: 0.69%

P(up): 51.8%

n=720

μ: +0.00%

σ: 1.46%

P(up): 56.1%

n=180

μ: +0.04%

σ: 3.11%

P(up): 50.0%

n=30

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Strike Ladder

Probability of ETH above each strike at resolution. Hover for details.

Price:

Strike	Diff%	Fair (4h/30d)	May 1	May 2	May 3	May 4	May 5	May 6	May 7
$2,800	+21.7%	1%	0% May 1 @ $2,800 Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $17K Liquidity: $67K	0% May 2 @ $2,800 Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $8K Liquidity: $14K	0% May 3 @ $2,800 Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $14K	0% May 4 @ $2,800 Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $401 Liquidity: $12K	1% May 5 @ $2,800 Bid: 0% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.8% Volume: $10 Liquidity: $6K	1% May 6 @ $2,800 Bid: 0% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.9% Volume: $10 Liquidity: $7K	1% May 7 @ $2,800 Bid: 0% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.4% Volume: $140 Liquidity: $6K
$2,700	+17.4%	1%	0% May 1 @ $2,700 Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $16K Liquidity: $74K	0% May 2 @ $2,700 Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $14K	0% May 3 @ $2,700 Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $15K	0% May 4 @ $2,700 Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $310 Liquidity: $12K	1% May 5 @ $2,700 Bid: 0% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.9% Volume: $10 Liquidity: $7K	1% May 6 @ $2,700 Bid: 0% Ask: 2% Spread: 2.2% Volume: $10 Liquidity: $7K	1% May 7 @ $2,700 Bid: 0% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.5% Volume: $90 Liquidity: $6K
$2,600	+13.0%	1%	0% May 1 @ $2,600 Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $14K Liquidity: $24K	0% May 2 @ $2,600 Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $17K	0% May 3 @ $2,600 Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $120 Liquidity: $12K	0% May 4 @ $2,600 Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $360 Liquidity: $11K	2% May 5 @ $2,600 Bid: 1% Ask: 3% Spread: 1.6% Volume: $1 Liquidity: $6K	2% May 6 @ $2,600 Bid: 0% Ask: 3% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $10 Liquidity: $6K	2% May 7 @ $2,600 Bid: 1% Ask: 3% Spread: 1.8% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $6K
$2,500	+8.7%	1%	0% May 1 @ $2,500 Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $56K Liquidity: $22K	0% May 2 @ $2,500 Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $10K Liquidity: $16K	1% May 3 @ $2,500 Bid: 0% Ask: 2% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $9K	2% May 4 @ $2,500 Bid: 1% Ask: 3% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $9K	3% May 5 @ $2,500 Bid: 1% Ask: 4% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $83 Liquidity: $6K	3% May 6 @ $2,500 Bid: 2% Ask: 5% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $4 Liquidity: $6K	6% May 7 @ $2,500 Bid: 4% Ask: 7% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $250 Liquidity: $7K
$2,400	+4.3%	1%	0% May 1 @ $2,400 Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $52K Liquidity: $16K	1% May 2 @ $2,400 Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $8K Liquidity: $14K	3% May 3 @ $2,400 Bid: 1% Ask: 6% Spread: 4.3% Volume: $369 Liquidity: $6K	8% May 4 @ $2,400 Bid: 6% Ask: 9% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $439 Liquidity: $6K	12% May 5 @ $2,400 Bid: 9% Ask: 14% Spread: 5.0% Volume: $135 Liquidity: $6K	16% May 6 @ $2,400 Bid: 14% Ask: 18% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $280 Liquidity: $6K	20% May 7 @ $2,400 Bid: 18% Ask: 21% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $114 Liquidity: $6K
$2,300	+0.0%	55%	24% May 1 @ $2,300 Bid: 22% Ask: 26% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $49K Liquidity: $18K	37% May 2 @ $2,300 Bid: 36% Ask: 38% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $829 Liquidity: $11K	40% May 3 @ $2,300 Bid: 37% Ask: 42% Spread: 5.0% Volume: $297 Liquidity: $6K	43% May 4 @ $2,300 Bid: 40% Ask: 45% Spread: 5.0% Volume: $107 Liquidity: $6K	45% May 5 @ $2,300 Bid: 42% Ask: 47% Spread: 5.0% Volume: $112 Liquidity: $6K	46% May 6 @ $2,300 Bid: 43% Ask: 48% Spread: 5.0% Volume: $40 Liquidity: $6K	46% May 7 @ $2,300 Bid: 43% Ask: 49% Spread: 6.0% Volume: $7 Liquidity: $6K
$2,200	-4.3%	98%	99% May 1 @ $2,200 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.9% Volume: $86K Liquidity: $18K	95% May 2 @ $2,200 Bid: 92% Ask: 98% Spread: 5.7% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $16K	93% May 3 @ $2,200 Bid: 91% Ask: 94% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $15K	86% May 4 @ $2,200 Bid: 85% Ask: 86% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $767 Liquidity: $11K	81% May 5 @ $2,200 Bid: 79% Ask: 83% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $621 Liquidity: $10K	79% May 6 @ $2,200 Bid: 77% Ask: 80% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $157 Liquidity: $6K	78% May 7 @ $2,200 Bid: 77% Ask: 79% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $104 Liquidity: $6K
$2,100	-8.7%	99%	100% May 1 @ $2,100 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $58K Liquidity: $17K	100% May 2 @ $2,100 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.6% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $11K	99% May 3 @ $2,100 Bid: 97% Ask: 100% Spread: 2.6% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $11K	98% May 4 @ $2,100 Bid: 96% Ask: 99% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $13K	96% May 5 @ $2,100 Bid: 94% Ask: 98% Spread: 3.6% Volume: $465 Liquidity: $6K	95% May 6 @ $2,100 Bid: 93% Ask: 97% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $265 Liquidity: $6K	94% May 7 @ $2,100 Bid: 93% Ask: 95% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $34 Liquidity: $6K
$2,000	-13.0%	99%	100% May 1 @ $2,000 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $105K Liquidity: $22K	100% May 2 @ $2,000 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $16K	100% May 3 @ $2,000 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $15K Liquidity: $16K	99% May 4 @ $2,000 Bid: 98% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.6% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $11K	98% May 5 @ $2,000 Bid: 97% Ask: 100% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $370 Liquidity: $6K	98% May 6 @ $2,000 Bid: 97% Ask: 99% Spread: 2.3% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $14K	97% May 7 @ $2,000 Bid: 96% Ask: 99% Spread: 3.5% Volume: $103 Liquidity: $6K
$1,900	-17.4%	99%	100% May 1 @ $1,900 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $14K Liquidity: $21K	100% May 2 @ $1,900 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $18K	100% May 3 @ $1,900 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $544 Liquidity: $14K	100% May 4 @ $1,900 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $15K	99% May 5 @ $1,900 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.2% Volume: $15 Liquidity: $6K	98% May 6 @ $1,900 Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.5% Volume: $600 Liquidity: $10K	99% May 7 @ $1,900 Bid: 97% Ask: 100% Spread: 2.6% Volume: $90 Liquidity: $6K
$1,800	-21.7%	99%	100% May 1 @ $1,800 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $25K Liquidity: $51K	—	100% May 3 @ $1,800 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $11K	100% May 4 @ $1,800 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $340 Liquidity: $11K	100% May 5 @ $1,800 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.8% Volume: $744 Liquidity: $10K	99% May 6 @ $1,800 Bid: 98% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.7% Volume: $407 Liquidity: $6K	99% May 7 @ $1,800 Bid: 98% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.7% Volume: $170 Liquidity: $6K

Up/Down Markets

Average probability of BTC going up per interval

Prediction History

How market probabilities evolved throughout the day vs ETH price

ETH Price

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