ETH Sentiment

Polymarket prediction markets

ETH/USDT

$2,300

BULLISH

58.8% up

Last update: 07:14 PM UTC

Pivot Strikes

Strike price closest to 50% probability for each date

March 16

$2K

March 17

$2K

64%

March 18

$2K

59%

March 19

$2K

57%

March 20

$2K

55%

March 21

$2K

56%

March 22

$2K

56%

March 23

$2K

55%

Fair Value Analysis

Normal

Historical probabilities vs Polymarket odds (30d lookback)

μ: -0.00%

σ: 0.69%

P(up): 51.8%

n=720

μ: +0.00%

σ: 1.46%

P(up): 56.1%

n=180

μ: +0.04%

σ: 3.11%

P(up): 50.0%

n=30

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Strike Ladder

Probability of ETH above each strike at resolution. Hover for details.

Price:

Strike	Diff%	Fair (4h/30d)	Mar 16	Mar 17	Mar 18	Mar 19	Mar 20	Mar 21	Mar 22	Mar 23
$2,800	+21.7%	1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	4% March 23 @ $2,800 Bid: 3% Ask: 6% Spread: 2.9% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $10K
$2,700	+17.4%	1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	7% March 23 @ $2,700 Bid: 5% Ask: 8% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $100 Liquidity: $6K
$2,600	+13.0%	1%	—	1% March 17 @ $2,600 Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $35K Liquidity: $16K	—	6% March 19 @ $2,600 Bid: 4% Ask: 7% Spread: 2.5% Volume: $8K Liquidity: $15K	8% March 20 @ $2,600 Bid: 6% Ask: 10% Spread: 3.7% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $15K	10% March 21 @ $2,600 Bid: 8% Ask: 11% Spread: 3.8% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $14K	11% March 22 @ $2,600 Bid: 9% Ask: 13% Spread: 3.7% Volume: $887 Liquidity: $12K	13% March 23 @ $2,600 Bid: 11% Ask: 15% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $10K
$2,500	+8.7%	1%	0% March 16 @ $2,500 Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $257K Liquidity: $380K	3% March 17 @ $2,500 Bid: 3% Ask: 3% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $29K Liquidity: $16K	9% March 18 @ $2,500 Bid: 8% Ask: 9% Spread: 1.1% Volume: $10K Liquidity: $15K	14% March 19 @ $2,500 Bid: 12% Ask: 16% Spread: 3.3% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $15K	18% March 20 @ $2,500 Bid: 16% Ask: 19% Spread: 3.5% Volume: $506 Liquidity: $12K	19% March 21 @ $2,500 Bid: 17% Ask: 21% Spread: 3.8% Volume: $26 Liquidity: $10K	21% March 22 @ $2,500 Bid: 19% Ask: 23% Spread: 3.9% Volume: $359 Liquidity: $10K	23% March 23 @ $2,500 Bid: 21% Ask: 24% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $11K
$2,400	+4.3%	1%	0% March 16 @ $2,400 Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $145K Liquidity: $0	20% March 17 @ $2,400 Bid: 19% Ask: 22% Spread: 2.8% Volume: $48K Liquidity: $18K	28% March 18 @ $2,400 Bid: 26% Ask: 29% Spread: 3.1% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $14K	31% March 19 @ $2,400 Bid: 29% Ask: 34% Spread: 4.2% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $15K	33% March 20 @ $2,400 Bid: 31% Ask: 35% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $775 Liquidity: $14K	35% March 21 @ $2,400 Bid: 33% Ask: 36% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $15K	36% March 22 @ $2,400 Bid: 35% Ask: 37% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $17K	37% March 23 @ $2,400 Bid: 35% Ask: 39% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $11K
$2,300	+0.0%	55%	0% March 16 @ $2,300 Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $476K Liquidity: $517K	64% March 17 @ $2,300 Bid: 62% Ask: 65% Spread: 3.1% Volume: $29K Liquidity: $17K	59% March 18 @ $2,300 Bid: 57% Ask: 61% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $14K	57% March 19 @ $2,300 Bid: 55% Ask: 59% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $14K	55% March 20 @ $2,300 Bid: 53% Ask: 57% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $731 Liquidity: $11K	56% March 21 @ $2,300 Bid: 54% Ask: 57% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $560 Liquidity: $14K	56% March 22 @ $2,300 Bid: 54% Ask: 57% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $881 Liquidity: $14K	55% March 23 @ $2,300 Bid: 53% Ask: 56% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $83 Liquidity: $11K
$2,200	-4.3%	98%	100% March 16 @ $2,200 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $210K Liquidity: $0	93% March 17 @ $2,200 Bid: 92% Ask: 93% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $14K Liquidity: $17K	85% March 18 @ $2,200 Bid: 83% Ask: 87% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $15K	80% March 19 @ $2,200 Bid: 78% Ask: 82% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $14K	77% March 20 @ $2,200 Bid: 75% Ask: 79% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $14K	75% March 21 @ $2,200 Bid: 73% Ask: 76% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $213 Liquidity: $11K	73% March 22 @ $2,200 Bid: 71% Ask: 75% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $13K	72% March 23 @ $2,200 Bid: 70% Ask: 73% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $69 Liquidity: $11K
$2,100	-8.7%	99%	100% March 16 @ $2,100 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $120K Liquidity: $432K	99% March 17 @ $2,100 Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $17K Liquidity: $19K	97% March 18 @ $2,100 Bid: 97% Ask: 97% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $16K	94% March 19 @ $2,100 Bid: 92% Ask: 95% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $622 Liquidity: $8K	90% March 20 @ $2,100 Bid: 88% Ask: 91% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $15K	88% March 21 @ $2,100 Bid: 86% Ask: 90% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $374 Liquidity: $11K	88% March 22 @ $2,100 Bid: 86% Ask: 89% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $724 Liquidity: $13K	85% March 23 @ $2,100 Bid: 83% Ask: 87% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $6K
$2,000	-13.0%	99%	100% March 16 @ $2,000 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $134K Liquidity: $0	99% March 17 @ $2,000 Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $16K Liquidity: $18K	98% March 18 @ $2,000 Bid: 98% Ask: 98% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $10K Liquidity: $18K	97% March 19 @ $2,000 Bid: 96% Ask: 98% Spread: 2.3% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $15K	97% March 20 @ $2,000 Bid: 96% Ask: 97% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $13K	96% March 21 @ $2,000 Bid: 95% Ask: 96% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $775 Liquidity: $13K	94% March 22 @ $2,000 Bid: 92% Ask: 95% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $673 Liquidity: $13K	93% March 23 @ $2,000 Bid: 92% Ask: 94% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $206 Liquidity: $11K
$1,900	-17.4%	99%	100% March 16 @ $1,900 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $129K Liquidity: $444K	100% March 17 @ $1,900 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $11K Liquidity: $22K	99% March 18 @ $1,900 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.9% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $17K	98% March 19 @ $1,900 Bid: 97% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.6% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $15K	98% March 20 @ $1,900 Bid: 97% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.6% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $15K	—	97% March 22 @ $1,900 Bid: 96% Ask: 98% Spread: 1.5% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $15K	96% March 23 @ $1,900 Bid: 95% Ask: 97% Spread: 1.8% Volume: $100 Liquidity: $11K
$1,800	-21.7%	99%	100% March 16 @ $1,800 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $85K Liquidity: $381K	100% March 17 @ $1,800 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $74K Liquidity: $34K	99% March 18 @ $1,800 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.8% Volume: $8K Liquidity: $17K	99% March 19 @ $1,800 Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $17K	99% March 20 @ $1,800 Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $15K	99% March 21 @ $1,800 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $9K Liquidity: $15K	99% March 22 @ $1,800 Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $581 Liquidity: $13K	98% March 23 @ $1,800 Bid: 97% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.7% Volume: $375 Liquidity: $10K
$1,700	-26.1%	99%	100% March 16 @ $1,700 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $46K Liquidity: $392K	100% March 17 @ $1,700 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $39K Liquidity: $47K	99% March 18 @ $1,700 Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $16K	99% March 19 @ $1,700 Bid: 98% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.6% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $15K	99% March 20 @ $1,700 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $470 Liquidity: $11K	99% March 21 @ $1,700 Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $16K	99% March 22 @ $1,700 Bid: 98% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.8% Volume: $630 Liquidity: $12K	—
$1,600	-30.4%	99%	100% March 16 @ $1,600 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $40K Liquidity: $388K	100% March 17 @ $1,600 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $29K Liquidity: $49K	100% March 18 @ $1,600 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $16K	99% March 19 @ $1,600 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.2% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $15K	99% March 20 @ $1,600 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $15K	99% March 21 @ $1,600 Bid: 98% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.9% Volume: $450 Liquidity: $11K	99% March 22 @ $1,600 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $240 Liquidity: $11K	—
$1,500	-34.8%	99%	100% March 16 @ $1,500 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $67K Liquidity: $398K	—	100% March 18 @ $1,500 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $19K Liquidity: $28K	—	—	—	—	—

Up/Down Markets

Average probability of BTC going up per interval

Prediction History

How market probabilities evolved throughout the day vs ETH price

ETH Price

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