ETH Sentiment

Polymarket prediction markets

ETH/USDT

$2,200

BEARISH

43.6% up

Last update: 09:56 AM UTC

Pivot Strikes

Strike price closest to 50% probability for each date

October 30

$2K

77%

October 31

$2K

70%

November 1

$2K

69%

November 2

$2K

65%

November 3

$2K

63%

November 4

$2K

60%

November 5

$2K

57%

Fair Value Analysis

Normal

Historical probabilities vs Polymarket odds (30d lookback)

μ: -0.00%

σ: 0.69%

P(up): 51.8%

n=720

μ: +0.00%

σ: 1.46%

P(up): 56.1%

n=180

μ: +0.04%

σ: 3.11%

P(up): 50.0%

n=30

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Strike Ladder

Probability of ETH above each strike at resolution. Hover for details.

Price:

Strike	Diff%	Fair (4h/30d)	Oct 30	Oct 31	Nov 1	Nov 2	Nov 3	Nov 4	Nov 5
$2,900	+31.8%	1%	0% October 30 @ $2,900 Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $164 Liquidity: $15K	—	—	—	—	—	0% November 5 @ $2,900 Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $9K
$2,800	+27.3%	1%	0% October 30 @ $2,800 Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $36K	0% October 31 @ $2,800 Bid: — Ask: 1% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $175 Liquidity: $6K	1% November 1 @ $2,800 Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $9K	1% November 2 @ $2,800 Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $353 Liquidity: $4K	1% November 3 @ $2,800 Bid: 0% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.9% Volume: $90 Liquidity: $4K	1% November 4 @ $2,800 Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $28K	1% November 5 @ $2,800 Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $95 Liquidity: $9K
$2,700	+22.7%	1%	0% October 30 @ $2,700 Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $36K	1% October 31 @ $2,700 Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $36K	0% November 1 @ $2,700 Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $557 Liquidity: $10K	1% November 2 @ $2,700 Bid: 0% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.4% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $9K	1% November 3 @ $2,700 Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.6% Volume: $327 Liquidity: $9K	1% November 4 @ $2,700 Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.8% Volume: $415 Liquidity: $9K	1% November 5 @ $2,700 Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $9K
$2,600	+18.2%	1%	0% October 30 @ $2,600 Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $24K Liquidity: $36K	1% October 31 @ $2,600 Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.8% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $36K	1% November 1 @ $2,600 Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $34K	1% November 2 @ $2,600 Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $12K Liquidity: $23K	1% November 3 @ $2,600 Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $28K	1% November 4 @ $2,600 Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.3% Volume: $37 Liquidity: $9K	2% November 5 @ $2,600 Bid: 1% Ask: 3% Spread: 1.8% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $9K
$2,500	+13.6%	1%	0% October 30 @ $2,500 Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $30K Liquidity: $38K	2% October 31 @ $2,500 Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $9K Liquidity: $36K	0% November 1 @ $2,500 Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $29K	1% November 2 @ $2,500 Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.6% Volume: $12K Liquidity: $39K	1% November 3 @ $2,500 Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.3% Volume: $443 Liquidity: $10K	4% November 4 @ $2,500 Bid: 3% Ask: 5% Spread: 2.4% Volume: $61 Liquidity: $6K	6% November 5 @ $2,500 Bid: 4% Ask: 7% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $34 Liquidity: $9K
$2,400	+9.1%	1%	1% October 30 @ $2,400 Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $152K Liquidity: $37K	1% October 31 @ $2,400 Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.2% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $35K	2% November 1 @ $2,400 Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.6% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $35K	4% November 2 @ $2,400 Bid: 3% Ask: 5% Spread: 2.3% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $28K	6% November 3 @ $2,400 Bid: 5% Ask: 6% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $628 Liquidity: $9K	12% November 4 @ $2,400 Bid: 10% Ask: 14% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $77 Liquidity: $9K	14% November 5 @ $2,400 Bid: 13% Ask: 15% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $9K
$2,300	+4.5%	1%	4% October 30 @ $2,300 Bid: 4% Ask: 5% Spread: 1.3% Volume: $50K Liquidity: $37K	12% October 31 @ $2,300 Bid: 11% Ask: 13% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $14K Liquidity: $35K	15% November 1 @ $2,300 Bid: 14% Ask: 16% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $15K Liquidity: $35K	22% November 2 @ $2,300 Bid: 21% Ask: 22% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $35K	25% November 3 @ $2,300 Bid: 24% Ask: 26% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $31K	32% November 4 @ $2,300 Bid: 31% Ask: 33% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $834 Liquidity: $11K	33% November 5 @ $2,300 Bid: 32% Ask: 34% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $49 Liquidity: $9K
$2,200	+0.0%	55%	77% October 30 @ $2,200 Bid: 76% Ask: 78% Spread: 1.8% Volume: $89K Liquidity: $34K	70% October 31 @ $2,200 Bid: 69% Ask: 72% Spread: 2.7% Volume: $16K Liquidity: $32K	69% November 1 @ $2,200 Bid: 68% Ask: 70% Spread: 1.3% Volume: $26K Liquidity: $38K	65% November 2 @ $2,200 Bid: 64% Ask: 66% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $28K Liquidity: $34K	63% November 3 @ $2,200 Bid: 62% Ask: 64% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $22K Liquidity: $36K	60% November 4 @ $2,200 Bid: 58% Ask: 61% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $34K	57% November 5 @ $2,200 Bid: 56% Ask: 59% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $34K
$2,100	-4.5%	98%	98% October 30 @ $2,100 Bid: 98% Ask: 98% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $59K Liquidity: $38K	96% October 31 @ $2,100 Bid: 95% Ask: 97% Spread: 1.9% Volume: $9K Liquidity: $35K	94% November 1 @ $2,100 Bid: 94% Ask: 95% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $8K Liquidity: $34K	89% November 2 @ $2,100 Bid: 89% Ask: 90% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $14K Liquidity: $28K	87% November 3 @ $2,100 Bid: 86% Ask: 88% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $16K Liquidity: $28K	82% November 4 @ $2,100 Bid: 81% Ask: 83% Spread: 2.1% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $28K	79% November 5 @ $2,100 Bid: 77% Ask: 80% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $97 Liquidity: $8K
$2,000	-9.1%	99%	100% October 30 @ $2,000 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $29K Liquidity: $40K	99% October 31 @ $2,000 Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.6% Volume: $7K Liquidity: $36K	98% November 1 @ $2,000 Bid: 97% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.9% Volume: $11K Liquidity: $39K	98% November 2 @ $2,000 Bid: 98% Ask: 98% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $30K	95% November 3 @ $2,000 Bid: 95% Ask: 96% Spread: 1.1% Volume: $9K Liquidity: $29K	92% November 4 @ $2,000 Bid: 92% Ask: 92% Spread: 0.6% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $28K	92% November 5 @ $2,000 Bid: 90% Ask: 94% Spread: 3.8% Volume: $305 Liquidity: $9K
$1,900	-13.6%	99%	100% October 30 @ $1,900 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $34K	99% October 31 @ $1,900 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $36K	100% November 1 @ $1,900 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $38K	99% November 2 @ $1,900 Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $38K	98% November 3 @ $1,900 Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $29K	97% November 4 @ $1,900 Bid: 96% Ask: 98% Spread: 2.7% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $24K	97% November 5 @ $1,900 Bid: 95% Ask: 98% Spread: 2.8% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $29K
$1,800	-18.2%	99%	—	99% October 31 @ $1,800 Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $186 Liquidity: $5K	100% November 1 @ $1,800 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $34K	99% November 2 @ $1,800 Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.6% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $34K	99% November 3 @ $1,800 Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $343 Liquidity: $9K	99% November 4 @ $1,800 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.9% Volume: $13K Liquidity: $28K	—

Up/Down Markets

Average probability of BTC going up per interval

Prediction History

How market probabilities evolved throughout the day vs ETH price

ETH Price

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