ETH Sentiment

Polymarket prediction markets

ETH/USDT

$1,800

BEARISH

47.3% up

Last update: 06:28 PM UTC

Pivot Strikes

Strike price closest to 50% probability for each date

June 16

$2K

74%

June 17

$2K

68%

June 18

$2K

64%

June 19

$2K

64%

June 20

$2K

63%

June 21

$2K

62%

June 22

$2K

60%

Fair Value Analysis

Normal

Historical probabilities vs Polymarket odds (30d lookback)

μ: -0.00%

σ: 0.69%

P(up): 51.8%

n=720

μ: +0.00%

σ: 1.46%

P(up): 56.1%

n=180

μ: +0.04%

σ: 3.11%

P(up): 50.0%

n=30

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Strike Ladder

Probability of ETH above each strike at resolution. Hover for details.

Price:

Strike	Diff%	Fair (1d/30d)	Jun 16	Jun 17	Jun 18	Jun 19	Jun 20	Jun 21	Jun 22
$2,300	+27.8%	1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	2% June 22 @ $2,300 Bid: 1% Ask: 3% Spread: 1.9% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $4K
$2,200	+22.2%	1%	—	0% June 17 @ $2,200 Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $7K Liquidity: $15K	—	2% June 19 @ $2,200 Bid: 0% Ask: 3% Spread: 2.6% Volume: $39 Liquidity: $4K	2% June 20 @ $2,200 Bid: 1% Ask: 3% Spread: 1.9% Volume: $151 Liquidity: $4K	2% June 21 @ $2,200 Bid: 1% Ask: 3% Spread: 1.8% Volume: $6 Liquidity: $9K	2% June 22 @ $2,200 Bid: 1% Ask: 3% Spread: 2.1% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $4K
$2,100	+16.7%	1%	0% June 16 @ $2,100 Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.6% Volume: $13K Liquidity: $19K	1% June 17 @ $2,100 Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $36 Liquidity: $12K	1% June 18 @ $2,100 Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 1.1% Volume: $38 Liquidity: $10K	2% June 19 @ $2,100 Bid: 1% Ask: 3% Spread: 1.9% Volume: $8 Liquidity: $9K	2% June 20 @ $2,100 Bid: 1% Ask: 4% Spread: 2.6% Volume: $308 Liquidity: $9K	3% June 21 @ $2,100 Bid: 1% Ask: 4% Spread: 2.6% Volume: $30 Liquidity: $9K	3% June 22 @ $2,100 Bid: 1% Ask: 5% Spread: 3.5% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $5K
$2,000	+11.1%	1%	1% June 16 @ $2,000 Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.8% Volume: $32K Liquidity: $18K	2% June 17 @ $2,000 Bid: 2% Ask: 2% Spread: 0.8% Volume: $275 Liquidity: $11K	3% June 18 @ $2,000 Bid: 2% Ask: 4% Spread: 1.7% Volume: $7K Liquidity: $17K	4% June 19 @ $2,000 Bid: 3% Ask: 5% Spread: 1.6% Volume: $15 Liquidity: $10K	6% June 20 @ $2,000 Bid: 4% Ask: 8% Spread: 3.8% Volume: $5 Liquidity: $10K	7% June 21 @ $2,000 Bid: 6% Ask: 9% Spread: 3.5% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $16K	8% June 22 @ $2,000 Bid: 4% Ask: 11% Spread: 7.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $4K
$1,900	+5.6%	9%	8% June 16 @ $1,900 Bid: 8% Ask: 9% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $24K Liquidity: $18K	15% June 17 @ $1,900 Bid: 15% Ask: 16% Spread: 1.2% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $15K	20% June 18 @ $1,900 Bid: 19% Ask: 20% Spread: 1.8% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $16K	23% June 19 @ $1,900 Bid: 21% Ask: 24% Spread: 3.4% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $15K	25% June 20 @ $1,900 Bid: 24% Ask: 26% Spread: 2.2% Volume: $152 Liquidity: $9K	28% June 21 @ $1,900 Bid: 28% Ask: 28% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $11K	28% June 22 @ $1,900 Bid: 24% Ask: 31% Spread: 7.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $4K
$1,800	+0.0%	50%	74% June 16 @ $1,800 Bid: 74% Ask: 75% Spread: 1.3% Volume: $64K Liquidity: $17K	68% June 17 @ $1,800 Bid: 66% Ask: 69% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $17K	64% June 18 @ $1,800 Bid: 63% Ask: 65% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $18K	64% June 19 @ $1,800 Bid: 62% Ask: 65% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $17K	63% June 20 @ $1,800 Bid: 61% Ask: 64% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $683 Liquidity: $16K	62% June 21 @ $1,800 Bid: 60% Ask: 63% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $161 Liquidity: $10K	60% June 22 @ $1,800 Bid: 57% Ask: 63% Spread: 6.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $5K
$1,700	-5.6%	98%	99% June 16 @ $1,700 Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $10K Liquidity: $19K	97% June 17 @ $1,700 Bid: 97% Ask: 97% Spread: 0.6% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $17K	95% June 18 @ $1,700 Bid: 94% Ask: 95% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $17K	92% June 19 @ $1,700 Bid: 91% Ask: 92% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $17K	90% June 20 @ $1,700 Bid: 89% Ask: 91% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $80 Liquidity: $10K	89% June 21 @ $1,700 Bid: 88% Ask: 90% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $722 Liquidity: $14K	88% June 22 @ $1,700 Bid: 84% Ask: 91% Spread: 7.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $4K
$1,600	-11.1%	99%	100% June 16 @ $1,600 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $19K Liquidity: $18K	99% June 17 @ $1,600 Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $13K	99% June 18 @ $1,600 Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $7K	97% June 19 @ $1,600 Bid: 96% Ask: 98% Spread: 2.8% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $16K	96% June 20 @ $1,600 Bid: 94% Ask: 98% Spread: 3.7% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $12K	97% June 21 @ $1,600 Bid: 97% Ask: 98% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $17K	97% June 22 @ $1,600 Bid: 95% Ask: 99% Spread: 3.8% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $5K
$1,500	-16.7%	99%	100% June 16 @ $1,500 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $12K Liquidity: $15K	99% June 17 @ $1,500 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $19K	99% June 18 @ $1,500 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $15K	99% June 19 @ $1,500 Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.9% Volume: $936 Liquidity: $16K	98% June 20 @ $1,500 Bid: 97% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.7% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $16K	98% June 21 @ $1,500 Bid: 97% Ask: 99% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $396 Liquidity: $9K	98% June 22 @ $1,500 Bid: 97% Ask: 99% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $4K
$1,400	-22.2%	99%	100% June 16 @ $1,400 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $13K Liquidity: $18K	100% June 17 @ $1,400 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $14K	99% June 18 @ $1,400 Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $16K	99% June 19 @ $1,400 Bid: 98% Ask: 100% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $317 Liquidity: $12K	98% June 20 @ $1,400 Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.2% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $20K	98% June 21 @ $1,400 Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.4% Volume: $310 Liquidity: $9K	98% June 22 @ $1,400 Bid: 97% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.9% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $4K
$1,300	-27.8%	99%	100% June 16 @ $1,300 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $15K	100% June 17 @ $1,300 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $15K	99% June 18 @ $1,300 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.1% Volume: $305 Liquidity: $7K	99% June 19 @ $1,300 Bid: 98% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.8% Volume: $315 Liquidity: $14K	99% June 20 @ $1,300 Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $300 Liquidity: $15K	98% June 21 @ $1,300 Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.1% Volume: $3 Liquidity: $9K	98% June 22 @ $1,300 Bid: 97% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.9% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $4K
$1,200	-33.3%	99%	100% June 16 @ $1,200 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $10K	100% June 17 @ $1,200 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $9K	99% June 18 @ $1,200 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $229 Liquidity: $3K	98% June 19 @ $1,200 Bid: 97% Ask: 100% Spread: 2.7% Volume: $5 Liquidity: $8K	98% June 20 @ $1,200 Bid: 97% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.9% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $10K	98% June 21 @ $1,200 Bid: 97% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.9% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $4K	—
$1,100	-38.9%	99%	100% June 16 @ $1,100 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $14K	—	100% June 18 @ $1,100 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $420 Liquidity: $7K	—	—	—	—

Up/Down Markets

Average probability of BTC going up per interval

Prediction History

How market probabilities evolved throughout the day vs ETH price

ETH Price

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