ETH Sentiment

Polymarket prediction markets

ETH/USDT

$3,200

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BULLISH

57.3% up

Last update: 07:39 PM UTC

Pivot Strikes

Strike price closest to 50% probability for each date

January 6

$3K

62%

January 7

$3K

58%

January 8

$3K

56%

January 9

$3K

56%

January 10

$3K

55%

January 11

$3K

54%

January 12

$3K

54%

Fair Value Analysis

Normal

Historical probabilities vs Polymarket odds (30d lookback)

1h

μ: -0.00%

σ: 0.69%

P(up): 51.8%

n=720

4h

μ: +0.00%

σ: 1.46%

P(up): 56.1%

n=180

1d

μ: +0.04%

σ: 3.11%

P(up): 50.0%

n=30

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Strike Ladder

Probability of ETH above each strike at resolution. Hover for details.

StrikeDiff%Fair (1d/30d)Jan 6Jan 7Jan 8Jan 9Jan 10Jan 11Jan 12
$3,700+15.6%1%
4%
$3,600+12.5%1%
4%
6%
7%
8%
$3,500+9.4%1%
1%
3%
6%
9%
13%
15%
$3,400+6.3%5%
4%
10%
14%
18%
21%
22%
24%
$3,300+3.1%17%
20%
28%
59%
34%
36%
37%
38%
$3,200+0.0%50%
62%
58%
56%
56%
55%
54%
54%
$3,100-3.1%86%
92%
84%
79%
75%
73%
72%
70%
$3,000-6.3%99%
99%
96%
93%
89%
87%
86%
82%
$2,900-9.4%99%
100%
98%
97%
96%
95%
94%
92%
$2,800-12.5%99%
100%
99%
99%
98%
97%
97%
95%
$2,700-15.6%99%
100%
100%
99%
99%
99%
98%
96%
$2,600-18.8%99%
100%
100%
99%
99%
99%
99%
$2,500-21.9%99%
100%
100%
100%

Up/Down Markets

Average probability of BTC going up per interval