BTC Sentiment

Polymarket prediction markets

BTC/USDT

$80,000

NEUTRAL

48.7% up

Last update: 01:09 PM UTC

Pivot Strikes

Strike price closest to 50% probability for each date

November 5

$80K

66%

November 6

$80K

59%

November 7

$80K

57%

November 8

$80K

56%

November 9

$80K

55%

November 10

$80K

55%

November 11

$80K

54%

Fair Value Analysis

Normal

Historical probabilities vs Polymarket odds (30d lookback)

μ: -0.00%

σ: 0.48%

P(up): 50.4%

n=720

μ: -0.02%

σ: 0.98%

P(up): 55.6%

n=180

μ: -0.07%

σ: 1.94%

P(up): 50.0%

n=30

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Strike Ladder

Probability of BTC above each strike at resolution. Hover for details.

Price:

Strike	Diff%	Fair (4h/30d)	Nov 5	Nov 6	Nov 7	Nov 8	Nov 9	Nov 10	Nov 11
$92K	+15.0%	1%	0% November 5 @ $92K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $82K Liquidity: $100K	—	—	—	—	—	—
$90K	+12.5%	1%	0% November 5 @ $90K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $54K Liquidity: $67K	—	—	—	—	—	1% November 11 @ $90K Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.5% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $22K
$88K	+10.0%	1%	0% November 5 @ $88K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $20K Liquidity: $46K	0% November 6 @ $88K Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $13K Liquidity: $50K	1% November 7 @ $88K Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $43K	1% November 8 @ $88K Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $43K	1% November 9 @ $88K Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $155 Liquidity: $13K	2% November 10 @ $88K Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $492 Liquidity: $20K	3% November 11 @ $88K Bid: 3% Ask: 4% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $22K
$86K	+7.5%	1%	0% November 5 @ $86K Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $36K Liquidity: $60K	1% November 6 @ $86K Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $18K Liquidity: $49K	1% November 7 @ $86K Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $46K	2% November 8 @ $86K Bid: 1% Ask: 3% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $31K	2% November 9 @ $86K Bid: 2% Ask: 3% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $37K	5% November 10 @ $86K Bid: 5% Ask: 6% Spread: 1.2% Volume: $524 Liquidity: $25K	7% November 11 @ $86K Bid: 5% Ask: 8% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $29 Liquidity: $21K
$84K	+5.0%	1%	1% November 5 @ $84K Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $78K Liquidity: $63K	4% November 6 @ $84K Bid: 4% Ask: 4% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $34K Liquidity: $53K	6% November 7 @ $84K Bid: 6% Ask: 6% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $46K	7% November 8 @ $84K Bid: 5% Ask: 8% Spread: 2.8% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $33K	11% November 9 @ $84K Bid: 10% Ask: 11% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $45K	14% November 10 @ $84K Bid: 14% Ask: 14% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $288 Liquidity: $20K	15% November 11 @ $84K Bid: 13% Ask: 17% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $22K
$82K	+2.5%	1%	6% November 5 @ $82K Bid: 6% Ask: 7% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $86K Liquidity: $49K	18% November 6 @ $82K Bid: 17% Ask: 18% Spread: 1.3% Volume: $25K Liquidity: $47K	23% November 7 @ $82K Bid: 23% Ask: 23% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $7K Liquidity: $48K	24% November 8 @ $82K Bid: 22% Ask: 26% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $731 Liquidity: $22K	28% November 9 @ $82K Bid: 27% Ask: 29% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $489 Liquidity: $24K	31% November 10 @ $82K Bid: 30% Ask: 32% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $172 Liquidity: $25K	32% November 11 @ $82K Bid: 30% Ask: 34% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $27K
$80K	+0.0%	53%	66% November 5 @ $80K Bid: 66% Ask: 67% Spread: 1.6% Volume: $71K Liquidity: $47K	59% November 6 @ $80K Bid: 58% Ask: 59% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $12K Liquidity: $48K	57% November 7 @ $80K Bid: 56% Ask: 58% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $48K	56% November 8 @ $80K Bid: 54% Ask: 58% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $423 Liquidity: $27K	55% November 9 @ $80K Bid: 54% Ask: 56% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $429 Liquidity: $26K	55% November 10 @ $80K Bid: 53% Ask: 56% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $494 Liquidity: $26K	54% November 11 @ $80K Bid: 52% Ask: 55% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $9 Liquidity: $27K
$78K	-2.5%	97%	98% November 5 @ $78K Bid: 98% Ask: 98% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $74K Liquidity: $56K	90% November 6 @ $78K Bid: 89% Ask: 91% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $41K Liquidity: $53K	87% November 7 @ $78K Bid: 86% Ask: 88% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $8K Liquidity: $43K	86% November 8 @ $78K Bid: 85% Ask: 87% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $41K	82% November 9 @ $78K Bid: 80% Ask: 83% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $41K	79% November 10 @ $78K Bid: 77% Ask: 80% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $41K	76% November 11 @ $78K Bid: 74% Ask: 77% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $143 Liquidity: $23K
$76K	-5.0%	99%	100% November 5 @ $76K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $52K Liquidity: $62K	99% November 6 @ $76K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $27K Liquidity: $47K	97% November 7 @ $76K Bid: 97% Ask: 98% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $19K Liquidity: $43K	97% November 8 @ $76K Bid: 96% Ask: 98% Spread: 2.2% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $40K	95% November 9 @ $76K Bid: 94% Ask: 96% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $41K	92% November 10 @ $76K Bid: 91% Ask: 92% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $330 Liquidity: $18K	90% November 11 @ $76K Bid: 88% Ask: 91% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $266 Liquidity: $22K
$74K	-7.5%	99%	100% November 5 @ $74K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $69K Liquidity: $57K	99% November 6 @ $74K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $39K Liquidity: $53K	99% November 7 @ $74K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $17K Liquidity: $43K	99% November 8 @ $74K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.6% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $39K	98% November 9 @ $74K Bid: 97% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.3% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $41K	97% November 10 @ $74K Bid: 97% Ask: 98% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $40K	96% November 11 @ $74K Bid: 95% Ask: 97% Spread: 2.3% Volume: $41 Liquidity: $21K
$72K	-10.0%	99%	100% November 5 @ $72K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $86K Liquidity: $54K	100% November 6 @ $72K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $28K Liquidity: $49K	99% November 7 @ $72K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $47K	99% November 8 @ $72K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.8% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $40K	99% November 9 @ $72K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $38K	99% November 10 @ $72K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $38K	98% November 11 @ $72K Bid: 97% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.9% Volume: $40 Liquidity: $22K
$70K	-12.5%	99%	—	100% November 6 @ $70K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $10K Liquidity: $41K	100% November 7 @ $70K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $9K Liquidity: $44K	100% November 8 @ $70K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $45K	99% November 9 @ $70K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $43K	99% November 10 @ $70K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $41K	99% November 11 @ $70K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $10 Liquidity: $22K
$68K	-15.0%	99%	—	100% November 6 @ $68K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $14K Liquidity: $51K	100% November 7 @ $68K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $10K Liquidity: $37K	100% November 8 @ $68K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $39K	99% November 9 @ $68K Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.2% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $43K	99% November 10 @ $68K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $37K	—

Up/Down Markets

Average probability of BTC going up per interval

Prediction History

How market probabilities evolved throughout the day vs BTC price

BTC Price

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