BTC Sentiment

Polymarket prediction markets

BTC/USDT

$68,000

NEUTRAL

49.2% up

Last update: 05:12 PM UTC

Pivot Strikes

Strike price closest to 50% probability for each date

June 15

$68K

June 16

$68K

22%

June 17

$66K

70%

June 18

$68K

35%

June 19

$68K

37%

June 20

$68K

39%

June 21

$68K

41%

June 22

$58K

50%

Fair Value Analysis

Normal

Historical probabilities vs Polymarket odds (30d lookback)

μ: -0.00%

σ: 0.48%

P(up): 50.4%

n=720

μ: -0.02%

σ: 0.98%

P(up): 55.6%

n=180

μ: -0.07%

σ: 1.94%

P(up): 50.0%

n=30

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Strike Ladder

Probability of BTC above each strike at resolution. Hover for details.

Price:

Strike	Diff%	Fair (4h/30d)	Jun 15	Jun 16	Jun 17	Jun 18	Jun 19	Jun 20	Jun 21	Jun 22
$78K	+14.7%	1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	50% June 22 @ $78K Bid: — Ask: 100% Spread: 100.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $0
$76K	+11.8%	1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	50% June 22 @ $76K Bid: — Ask: 100% Spread: 100.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $0
$74K	+8.8%	1%	0% June 15 @ $74K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $62K Liquidity: $138K	—	—	—	1% June 19 @ $74K Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.1% Volume: $29K Liquidity: $18K	2% June 20 @ $74K Bid: 1% Ask: 3% Spread: 2.4% Volume: $357 Liquidity: $11K	2% June 21 @ $74K Bid: 1% Ask: 3% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $693 Liquidity: $10K	50% June 22 @ $74K Bid: — Ask: 100% Spread: 100.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $0
$72K	+5.9%	1%	0% June 15 @ $72K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $73K Liquidity: $231K	1% June 16 @ $72K Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $35K Liquidity: $24K	1% June 17 @ $72K Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $7K Liquidity: $17K	3% June 18 @ $72K Bid: 2% Ask: 4% Spread: 1.5% Volume: $18K Liquidity: $23K	3% June 19 @ $72K Bid: 3% Ask: 4% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $11K Liquidity: $20K	5% June 20 @ $72K Bid: 5% Ask: 6% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $18K	6% June 21 @ $72K Bid: 5% Ask: 6% Spread: 1.1% Volume: $157 Liquidity: $12K	58% June 22 @ $72K Bid: 16% Ask: 100% Spread: 84.0% Volume: $5 Liquidity: $10
$70K	+2.9%	1%	0% June 15 @ $70K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $277K Liquidity: $193K	2% June 16 @ $70K Bid: 2% Ask: 3% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $62K Liquidity: $23K	6% June 17 @ $70K Bid: 6% Ask: 6% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $18K Liquidity: $26K	10% June 18 @ $70K Bid: 10% Ask: 11% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $18K Liquidity: $18K	13% June 19 @ $70K Bid: 12% Ask: 13% Spread: 0.9% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $17K	15% June 20 @ $70K Bid: 15% Ask: 16% Spread: 1.2% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $17K	17% June 21 @ $70K Bid: 17% Ask: 18% Spread: 1.5% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $17K	50% June 22 @ $70K Bid: — Ask: 100% Spread: 100.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $0
$68K	+0.0%	53%	0% June 15 @ $68K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $521K Liquidity: $343K	22% June 16 @ $68K Bid: 22% Ask: 22% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $111K Liquidity: $24K	31% June 17 @ $68K Bid: 30% Ask: 31% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $16K Liquidity: $20K	35% June 18 @ $68K Bid: 34% Ask: 36% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $7K Liquidity: $19K	37% June 19 @ $68K Bid: 36% Ask: 38% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $19K	39% June 20 @ $68K Bid: 37% Ask: 40% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $8K Liquidity: $20K	41% June 21 @ $68K Bid: 40% Ask: 41% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $16K	50% June 22 @ $68K Bid: — Ask: 100% Spread: 100.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $0
$66K	-2.9%	98%	100% June 15 @ $66K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $344K Liquidity: $340K	84% June 16 @ $66K Bid: 83% Ask: 84% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $82K Liquidity: $29K	70% June 17 @ $66K Bid: 69% Ask: 70% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $8K Liquidity: $15K	71% June 18 @ $66K Bid: 70% Ask: 72% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $19K	67% June 19 @ $66K Bid: 66% Ask: 68% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $18K	63% June 20 @ $66K Bid: 62% Ask: 64% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $12K	66% June 21 @ $66K Bid: 65% Ask: 66% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $510 Liquidity: $17K	59% June 22 @ $66K Bid: 57% Ask: 61% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $19
$64K	-5.9%	99%	100% June 15 @ $64K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $233K Liquidity: $215K	99% June 16 @ $64K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $63K Liquidity: $26K	97% June 17 @ $64K Bid: 96% Ask: 97% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $11K Liquidity: $24K	93% June 18 @ $64K Bid: 92% Ask: 93% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $13K Liquidity: $20K	90% June 19 @ $64K Bid: 89% Ask: 90% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $18K	87% June 20 @ $64K Bid: 86% Ask: 88% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $18K	86% June 21 @ $64K Bid: 85% Ask: 86% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $18K	50% June 22 @ $64K Bid: — Ask: 100% Spread: 100.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $0
$62K	-8.8%	99%	100% June 15 @ $62K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $318K Liquidity: $182K	100% June 16 @ $62K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $88K Liquidity: $25K	99% June 17 @ $62K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $18K Liquidity: $19K	97% June 18 @ $62K Bid: 97% Ask: 98% Spread: 0.8% Volume: $10K Liquidity: $9K	97% June 19 @ $62K Bid: 96% Ask: 98% Spread: 1.6% Volume: $21K Liquidity: $17K	96% June 20 @ $62K Bid: 95% Ask: 96% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $21K	95% June 21 @ $62K Bid: 94% Ask: 95% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $11K Liquidity: $19K	88% June 22 @ $62K Bid: 86% Ask: 90% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $15
$60K	-11.8%	99%	100% June 15 @ $60K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $220K Liquidity: $251K	100% June 16 @ $60K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $123K Liquidity: $42K	99% June 17 @ $60K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $41K Liquidity: $27K	99% June 18 @ $60K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $28K Liquidity: $19K	98% June 19 @ $60K Bid: 98% Ask: 98% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $36K Liquidity: $21K	98% June 20 @ $60K Bid: 97% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.3% Volume: $21K Liquidity: $21K	97% June 21 @ $60K Bid: 96% Ask: 98% Spread: 1.8% Volume: $14K Liquidity: $12K	95% June 22 @ $60K Bid: 93% Ask: 97% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $12
$58K	-14.7%	99%	100% June 15 @ $58K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $207K Liquidity: $196K	100% June 16 @ $58K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $69K Liquidity: $16K	100% June 17 @ $58K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $15K Liquidity: $22K	99% June 18 @ $58K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $16K	99% June 19 @ $58K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $23K	99% June 20 @ $58K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.9% Volume: $9K Liquidity: $19K	99% June 21 @ $58K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.8% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $19K	50% June 22 @ $58K Bid: — Ask: 100% Spread: 100.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $0
$56K	-17.6%	99%	100% June 15 @ $56K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $128K Liquidity: $191K	100% June 16 @ $56K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $95K Liquidity: $21K	100% June 17 @ $56K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $16K Liquidity: $26K	99% June 18 @ $56K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.1% Volume: $12K Liquidity: $28K	99% June 19 @ $56K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $12K Liquidity: $25K	99% June 20 @ $56K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $18K	99% June 21 @ $56K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.9% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $17K	—
$54K	-20.6%	99%	100% June 15 @ $54K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $76K Liquidity: $274K	100% June 16 @ $54K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $53K Liquidity: $32K	100% June 17 @ $54K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $14K Liquidity: $23K	99% June 18 @ $54K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $10K	99% June 19 @ $54K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $18K	99% June 20 @ $54K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $152 Liquidity: $7K	100% June 21 @ $54K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.6% Volume: $110 Liquidity: $7K	—
$52K	-23.5%	99%	—	100% June 16 @ $52K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $32K Liquidity: $43K	100% June 17 @ $52K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $25K Liquidity: $16K	100% June 18 @ $52K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $12K Liquidity: $29K	—	—	—	—

Up/Down Markets

Average probability of BTC going up per interval

Prediction History

How market probabilities evolved throughout the day vs BTC price

BTC Price

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