BTC Sentiment

Polymarket prediction markets

BTC/USDT

$64,000

BEARISH

46.6% up

Last update: 05:15 PM UTC

Pivot Strikes

Strike price closest to 50% probability for each date

June 20

$64K

65%

June 21

$64K

64%

June 22

$64K

64%

June 23

$64K

62%

June 24

$64K

61%

June 18

$64K

81%

June 19

$64K

70%

Fair Value Analysis

Normal

Historical probabilities vs Polymarket odds (30d lookback)

μ: -0.00%

σ: 0.48%

P(up): 50.4%

n=720

μ: -0.02%

σ: 0.98%

P(up): 55.6%

n=180

μ: -0.07%

σ: 1.94%

P(up): 50.0%

n=30

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Strike Ladder

Probability of BTC above each strike at resolution. Hover for details.

Price:

Strike	Diff%	Fair (4h/30d)	Jun 20	Jun 21	Jun 22	Jun 23	Jun 24	Jun 18	Jun 19
$78K	+21.9%	1%	—	—	0% June 22 @ $78K Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $19K	—	—	—	—
$76K	+18.8%	1%	—	—	0% June 22 @ $76K Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $86 Liquidity: $12K	0% June 23 @ $76K Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $725 Liquidity: $17K	1% June 24 @ $76K Bid: 0% Ask: 3% Spread: 2.2% Volume: $5 Liquidity: $5K	—	—
$74K	+15.6%	1%	0% June 20 @ $74K Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $42K Liquidity: $20K	0% June 21 @ $74K Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $915 Liquidity: $17K	1% June 22 @ $74K Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.6% Volume: $7K Liquidity: $20K	1% June 23 @ $74K Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.8% Volume: $204 Liquidity: $12K	2% June 24 @ $74K Bid: 1% Ask: 3% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $5K	—	0% June 19 @ $74K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $127K Liquidity: $66K
$72K	+12.5%	1%	1% June 20 @ $72K Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.3% Volume: $8K Liquidity: $19K	0% June 21 @ $72K Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $12K	1% June 22 @ $72K Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $19K	1% June 23 @ $72K Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $461 Liquidity: $6K	2% June 24 @ $72K Bid: 2% Ask: 3% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $32 Liquidity: $6K	0% June 18 @ $72K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $179K Liquidity: $66K	0% June 19 @ $72K Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $50K Liquidity: $24K
$70K	+9.4%	1%	2% June 20 @ $70K Bid: 2% Ask: 2% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $21K Liquidity: $20K	2% June 21 @ $70K Bid: 2% Ask: 3% Spread: 1.3% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $17K	2% June 22 @ $70K Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.1% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $18K	4% June 23 @ $70K Bid: 3% Ask: 4% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $715 Liquidity: $17K	5% June 24 @ $70K Bid: 4% Ask: 5% Spread: 1.2% Volume: $372 Liquidity: $6K	0% June 18 @ $70K Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $272K Liquidity: $33K	1% June 19 @ $70K Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $57K Liquidity: $23K
$68K	+6.3%	1%	4% June 20 @ $68K Bid: 4% Ask: 5% Spread: 1.2% Volume: $35K Liquidity: $22K	5% June 21 @ $68K Bid: 5% Ask: 6% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $10K Liquidity: $20K	8% June 22 @ $68K Bid: 7% Ask: 8% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $18K	11% June 23 @ $68K Bid: 10% Ask: 12% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $18K	13% June 24 @ $68K Bid: 12% Ask: 13% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $652 Liquidity: $10K	0% June 18 @ $68K Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $135K Liquidity: $55K	3% June 19 @ $68K Bid: 3% Ask: 3% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $42K Liquidity: $24K
$66K	+3.1%	1%	20% June 20 @ $66K Bid: 19% Ask: 20% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $9K Liquidity: $19K	24% June 21 @ $66K Bid: 23% Ask: 24% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $17K	28% June 22 @ $66K Bid: 28% Ask: 29% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $18K	32% June 23 @ $66K Bid: 31% Ask: 32% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $19K	35% June 24 @ $66K Bid: 34% Ask: 35% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $50 Liquidity: $5K	8% June 18 @ $66K Bid: 7% Ask: 8% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $88K Liquidity: $26K	19% June 19 @ $66K Bid: 18% Ask: 19% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $22K Liquidity: $21K
$64K	+0.0%	53%	65% June 20 @ $64K Bid: 64% Ask: 66% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $10K Liquidity: $19K	64% June 21 @ $64K Bid: 63% Ask: 65% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $19K	64% June 22 @ $64K Bid: 63% Ask: 65% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $19K	62% June 23 @ $64K Bid: 61% Ask: 62% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $19K	61% June 24 @ $64K Bid: 60% Ask: 61% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $116 Liquidity: $5K	81% June 18 @ $64K Bid: 80% Ask: 81% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $179K Liquidity: $19K	70% June 19 @ $64K Bid: 69% Ask: 70% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $28K Liquidity: $23K
$62K	-3.1%	99%	93% June 20 @ $62K Bid: 93% Ask: 94% Spread: 1.2% Volume: $25K Liquidity: $21K	90% June 21 @ $62K Bid: 90% Ask: 91% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $21K Liquidity: $13K	88% June 22 @ $62K Bid: 87% Ask: 89% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $16K Liquidity: $19K	85% June 23 @ $62K Bid: 84% Ask: 86% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $7K Liquidity: $18K	82% June 24 @ $62K Bid: 80% Ask: 83% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $50 Liquidity: $5K	99% June 18 @ $62K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $220K Liquidity: $26K	95% June 19 @ $62K Bid: 95% Ask: 95% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $61K Liquidity: $22K
$60K	-6.3%	99%	98% June 20 @ $60K Bid: 97% Ask: 98% Spread: 1.1% Volume: $24K Liquidity: $22K	97% June 21 @ $60K Bid: 97% Ask: 98% Spread: 0.6% Volume: $22K Liquidity: $19K	97% June 22 @ $60K Bid: 96% Ask: 97% Spread: 1.1% Volume: $21K Liquidity: $21K	95% June 23 @ $60K Bid: 95% Ask: 96% Spread: 0.9% Volume: $14K Liquidity: $18K	93% June 24 @ $60K Bid: 92% Ask: 93% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $5K	100% June 18 @ $60K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $128K Liquidity: $40K	99% June 19 @ $60K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $62K Liquidity: $22K
$58K	-9.4%	99%	99% June 20 @ $58K Bid: 98% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.6% Volume: $10K Liquidity: $17K	98% June 21 @ $58K Bid: 97% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.5% Volume: $9K Liquidity: $21K	99% June 22 @ $58K Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.4% Volume: $12K Liquidity: $25K	98% June 23 @ $58K Bid: 98% Ask: 98% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $14K Liquidity: $13K	97% June 24 @ $58K Bid: 96% Ask: 97% Spread: 1.2% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $6K	100% June 18 @ $58K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $215K Liquidity: $31K	100% June 19 @ $58K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $93K Liquidity: $25K
$56K	-12.5%	99%	99% June 20 @ $56K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.8% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $24K	99% June 21 @ $56K Bid: 98% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.6% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $19K	—	99% June 23 @ $56K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $18K	98% June 24 @ $56K Bid: 97% Ask: 99% Spread: 2.3% Volume: $26 Liquidity: $6K	100% June 18 @ $56K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $95K Liquidity: $77K	100% June 19 @ $56K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $52K Liquidity: $36K
$54K	-15.6%	99%	100% June 20 @ $54K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $297 Liquidity: $18K	99% June 21 @ $54K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.8% Volume: $380 Liquidity: $13K	—	—	—	100% June 18 @ $54K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $68K Liquidity: $82K	100% June 19 @ $54K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $26K Liquidity: $39K
$52K	-18.8%	99%	—	—	—	—	—	100% June 18 @ $52K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $87K Liquidity: $67K	—

Up/Down Markets

Average probability of BTC going up per interval

Prediction History

How market probabilities evolved throughout the day vs BTC price

BTC Price

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