BTC Sentiment

Polymarket prediction markets

BTC/USDT

$70,000

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NEUTRAL

48.5% up

Last update: 10:33 PM UTC

Pivot Strikes

Strike price closest to 50% probability for each date

March 13

$70K

55%

March 14

$70K

53%

March 16

$70K

52%

March 17

$70K

53%

March 18

$70K

53%

March 19

$70K

52%

Fair Value Analysis

Normal

Historical probabilities vs Polymarket odds (30d lookback)

1h

μ: -0.00%

σ: 0.48%

P(up): 50.4%

n=720

4h

μ: -0.02%

σ: 0.98%

P(up): 55.6%

n=180

1d

μ: -0.07%

σ: 1.94%

P(up): 50.0%

n=30

Loading prices...

Strike Ladder

Probability of BTC above each strike at resolution. Hover for details.

Price:
StrikeDiff%Fair (1d/30d)Mar 13Mar 14Mar 16Mar 17Mar 18Mar 19
$82K+17.1%1%
1%
$80K+14.3%1%
1%
3%
4%
$78K+11.4%1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
5%
6%
$76K+8.6%1%
1%
1%
5%
7%
10%
13%
$74K+5.7%1%
3%
5%
12%
17%
20%
22%
$72K+2.9%5%
14%
20%
28%
33%
35%
36%
$70K+0.0%51%
55%
53%
52%
53%
53%
52%
$68K-2.9%95%
90%
83%
75%
72%
70%
69%
$66K-5.7%99%
99%
97%
89%
86%
83%
81%
$64K-8.6%99%
99%
99%
95%
94%
92%
90%
$62K-11.4%99%
100%
99%
98%
96%
96%
95%
$60K-14.3%99%
100%
99%
99%
97%
97%
$58K-17.1%99%
100%
100%
99%

Up/Down Markets

Average probability of BTC going up per interval

Prediction History

How market probabilities evolved throughout the day vs BTC price

BTC Price
Select a date to view prediction history