BTC Sentiment

Polymarket prediction markets

BTC/USDT

$74,000

BULLISH

52.1% up

Last update: 08:04 PM UTC

Pivot Strikes

Strike price closest to 50% probability for each date

March 21

$72K

March 22

$70K

64%

March 23

$70K

57%

March 24

$70K

55%

March 25

$70K

55%

March 26

$70K

54%

March 27

$70K

54%

March 28

$74K

50%

Fair Value Analysis

Normal

Historical probabilities vs Polymarket odds (30d lookback)

μ: -0.00%

σ: 0.48%

P(up): 50.4%

n=720

μ: -0.02%

σ: 0.98%

P(up): 55.6%

n=180

μ: -0.07%

σ: 1.94%

P(up): 50.0%

n=30

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Strike Ladder

Probability of BTC above each strike at resolution. Hover for details.

Price:

Strike	Diff%	Fair (1h/30d)	Mar 21	Mar 22	Mar 23	Mar 24	Mar 25	Mar 26	Mar 27	Mar 28
$84K	+13.5%	1%	—	—	0% March 23 @ $84K Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $21K Liquidity: $60K	1% March 24 @ $84K Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $20K	—	—	—	—
$82K	+10.8%	1%	—	0% March 22 @ $82K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $77K Liquidity: $74K	0% March 23 @ $82K Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $15K Liquidity: $41K	1% March 24 @ $82K Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $19K	1% March 25 @ $82K Bid: 0% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.1% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $18K	—	—	—
$80K	+8.1%	1%	0% March 21 @ $80K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $185K Liquidity: $569K	0% March 22 @ $80K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $126K Liquidity: $90K	0% March 23 @ $80K Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $30K Liquidity: $19K	1% March 24 @ $80K Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $24K	0% March 25 @ $80K Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $13K Liquidity: $22K	2% March 26 @ $80K Bid: 2% Ask: 2% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $8K Liquidity: $26K	3% March 27 @ $80K Bid: 1% Ask: 4% Spread: 2.6% Volume: $44 Liquidity: $16K	10% March 28 @ $80K Bid: — Ask: 19% Spread: 19.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $97
$78K	+5.4%	1%	0% March 21 @ $78K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $116K Liquidity: $525K	0% March 22 @ $78K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $178K Liquidity: $34K	1% March 23 @ $78K Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $29K	1% March 24 @ $78K Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $9K Liquidity: $22K	3% March 25 @ $78K Bid: 3% Ask: 3% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $20K	5% March 26 @ $78K Bid: 5% Ask: 5% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $23K	6% March 27 @ $78K Bid: 5% Ask: 7% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $107 Liquidity: $15K	3% March 28 @ $78K Bid: 1% Ask: 5% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $95
$76K	+2.7%	1%	0% March 21 @ $76K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $349K Liquidity: $466K	0% March 22 @ $76K Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $97K Liquidity: $30K	1% March 23 @ $76K Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $30K Liquidity: $25K	3% March 24 @ $76K Bid: 3% Ask: 3% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $9K Liquidity: $26K	7% March 25 @ $76K Bid: 6% Ask: 8% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $23K	9% March 26 @ $76K Bid: 8% Ask: 10% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $21K	11% March 27 @ $76K Bid: 10% Ask: 12% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $47 Liquidity: $15K	50% March 28 @ $76K Bid: 1% Ask: 99% Spread: 98.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $0
$74K	+0.0%	50%	0% March 21 @ $74K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $582K Liquidity: $476K	1% March 22 @ $74K Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $124K Liquidity: $41K	7% March 23 @ $74K Bid: 6% Ask: 7% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $36K Liquidity: $26K	12% March 24 @ $74K Bid: 11% Ask: 13% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $7K Liquidity: $23K	16% March 25 @ $74K Bid: 15% Ask: 17% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $21K	20% March 26 @ $74K Bid: 19% Ask: 21% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $22K	21% March 27 @ $74K Bid: 20% Ask: 22% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $19K	50% March 28 @ $74K Bid: 1% Ask: 99% Spread: 98.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $0
$72K	-2.7%	99%	0% March 21 @ $72K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $446K Liquidity: $625K	7% March 22 @ $72K Bid: 6% Ask: 8% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $85K Liquidity: $30K	25% March 23 @ $72K Bid: 24% Ask: 25% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $14K Liquidity: $23K	30% March 24 @ $72K Bid: 29% Ask: 31% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $7K Liquidity: $22K	33% March 25 @ $72K Bid: 32% Ask: 34% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $8K Liquidity: $23K	34% March 26 @ $72K Bid: 33% Ask: 35% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $23K	36% March 27 @ $72K Bid: 35% Ask: 37% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $21K	60% March 28 @ $72K Bid: 20% Ask: 99% Spread: 79.0% Volume: $6 Liquidity: $520
$70K	-5.4%	99%	100% March 21 @ $70K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $518K Liquidity: $639K	64% March 22 @ $70K Bid: 63% Ask: 64% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $69K Liquidity: $27K	57% March 23 @ $70K Bid: 56% Ask: 58% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $35K Liquidity: $25K	55% March 24 @ $70K Bid: 54% Ask: 56% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $9K Liquidity: $23K	55% March 25 @ $70K Bid: 53% Ask: 56% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $7K Liquidity: $22K	54% March 26 @ $70K Bid: 52% Ask: 55% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $24K	54% March 27 @ $70K Bid: 53% Ask: 55% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $559 Liquidity: $17K	51% March 28 @ $70K Bid: 3% Ask: 99% Spread: 96.0% Volume: $3 Liquidity: $103
$68K	-8.1%	99%	100% March 21 @ $68K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $453K Liquidity: $580K	97% March 22 @ $68K Bid: 97% Ask: 98% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $113K Liquidity: $25K	86% March 23 @ $68K Bid: 85% Ask: 86% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $46K Liquidity: $26K	78% March 24 @ $68K Bid: 77% Ask: 79% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $13K Liquidity: $24K	74% March 25 @ $68K Bid: 73% Ask: 75% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $20K	72% March 26 @ $68K Bid: 70% Ask: 74% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $22K	71% March 27 @ $68K Bid: 69% Ask: 72% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $690 Liquidity: $16K	51% March 28 @ $68K Bid: 3% Ask: 99% Spread: 96.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $103
$66K	-10.8%	99%	100% March 21 @ $66K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $467K Liquidity: $407K	99% March 22 @ $66K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $320K Liquidity: $25K	97% March 23 @ $66K Bid: 97% Ask: 97% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $58K Liquidity: $23K	92% March 24 @ $66K Bid: 92% Ask: 92% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $46K Liquidity: $25K	88% March 25 @ $66K Bid: 87% Ask: 89% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $11K Liquidity: $23K	86% March 26 @ $66K Bid: 85% Ask: 87% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $22K	84% March 27 @ $66K Bid: 82% Ask: 85% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $654 Liquidity: $16K	51% March 28 @ $66K Bid: 3% Ask: 99% Spread: 96.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $103
$64K	-13.5%	99%	100% March 21 @ $64K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $252K Liquidity: $427K	100% March 22 @ $64K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $265K Liquidity: $35K	98% March 23 @ $64K Bid: 98% Ask: 98% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $112K Liquidity: $23K	98% March 24 @ $64K Bid: 98% Ask: 98% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $38K Liquidity: $22K	96% March 25 @ $64K Bid: 96% Ask: 97% Spread: 0.6% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $24K	94% March 26 @ $64K Bid: 93% Ask: 95% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $23K	92% March 27 @ $64K Bid: 91% Ask: 93% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $19K	92% March 28 @ $64K Bid: 85% Ask: 99% Spread: 14.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $33
$62K	-16.2%	99%	100% March 21 @ $62K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $265K Liquidity: $571K	100% March 22 @ $62K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $285K Liquidity: $47K	—	—	98% March 25 @ $62K Bid: 97% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.8% Volume: $20K Liquidity: $21K	97% March 26 @ $62K Bid: 97% Ask: 98% Spread: 1.6% Volume: $14K Liquidity: $21K	97% March 27 @ $62K Bid: 97% Ask: 97% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $263 Liquidity: $15K	95% March 28 @ $62K Bid: 90% Ask: 100% Spread: 10.0% Volume: $5 Liquidity: $58
$60K	-18.9%	99%	100% March 21 @ $60K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $169K Liquidity: $578K	—	—	—	—	99% March 26 @ $60K Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $9K Liquidity: $21K	98% March 27 @ $60K Bid: 97% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.5% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $14K	90% March 28 @ $60K Bid: 81% Ask: 99% Spread: 18.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $102

Up/Down Markets

Average probability of BTC going up per interval

Prediction History

How market probabilities evolved throughout the day vs BTC price

BTC Price

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