BTC Sentiment

Polymarket prediction markets

BTC/USDT

$76,000

Loading...

BEARISH

47.8% up

Last update: 01:13 AM UTC

Pivot Strikes

Strike price closest to 50% probability for each date

February 4

$80K

5%

February 5

$76K

51%

February 6

$76K

52%

February 7

$76K

54%

February 8

$76K

51%

February 9

$76K

53%

February 10

$76K

52%

Fair Value Analysis

Normal

Historical probabilities vs Polymarket odds (30d lookback)

1h

μ: -0.00%

σ: 0.48%

P(up): 50.4%

n=720

4h

μ: -0.02%

σ: 0.98%

P(up): 55.6%

n=180

1d

μ: -0.07%

σ: 1.94%

P(up): 50.0%

n=30

Loading prices...

Strike Ladder

Probability of BTC above each strike at resolution. Hover for details.

Price:
StrikeDiff%Fair (4h/30d)Feb 4Feb 5Feb 6Feb 7Feb 8Feb 9Feb 10
$100K+31.6%1%
0%
$98K+28.9%1%
0%
$96K+26.3%1%
0%
0%
$94K+23.7%1%
0%
0%
0%
$92K+21.1%1%
0%
0%
0%
$90K+18.4%1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
$88K+15.8%1%
0%
0%
0%
1%
2%
2%
$86K+13.2%1%
0%
1%
1%
1%
3%
4%
3%
$84K+10.5%1%
0%
2%
3%
3%
5%
7%
6%
$82K+7.9%1%
1%
3%
7%
8%
10%
12%
13%
$80K+5.3%1%
5%
10%
14%
18%
18%
22%
23%
$78K+2.6%1%
24%
31%
34%
34%
37%
37%
$76K+0.0%53%
51%
52%
54%
51%
53%
52%
$74K-2.6%98%
71%
72%
69%
68%
67%
$72K-5.3%99%
85%
83%
80%
78%
$70K-7.9%99%
91%
90%
90%
88%
$68K-10.5%99%
94%
95%
94%
$66K-13.2%99%
96%

Up/Down Markets

Average probability of BTC going up per interval

Prediction History

How market probabilities evolved throughout the day vs BTC price

BTC Price
Select a date to view prediction history