BTC Sentiment

Polymarket prediction markets

BTC/USDT

$82,000

BULLISH

56.7% up

Last update: 11:05 AM UTC

Pivot Strikes

Strike price closest to 50% probability for each date

May 6

$82K

63%

May 7

$82K

56%

May 8

$82K

56%

May 9

$82K

54%

May 10

$82K

54%

May 11

$82K

52%

May 12

$82K

52%

Fair Value Analysis

Normal

Historical probabilities vs Polymarket odds (30d lookback)

μ: -0.00%

σ: 0.48%

P(up): 50.4%

n=720

μ: -0.02%

σ: 0.98%

P(up): 55.6%

n=180

μ: -0.07%

σ: 1.94%

P(up): 50.0%

n=30

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Strike Ladder

Probability of BTC above each strike at resolution. Hover for details.

Price:

Strike	Diff%	Fair (4h/30d)	May 6	May 7	May 8	May 9	May 10	May 11	May 12
$92K	+12.2%	1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	3% May 12 @ $92K Bid: 3% Ask: 3% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $19K
$90K	+9.8%	1%	—	—	—	—	—	2% May 11 @ $90K Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $22K	4% May 12 @ $90K Bid: 2% Ask: 5% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $850 Liquidity: $16K
$88K	+7.3%	1%	—	—	2% May 8 @ $88K Bid: 2% Ask: 3% Spread: 1.1% Volume: $14K Liquidity: $20K	2% May 9 @ $88K Bid: 2% Ask: 3% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $20K	3% May 10 @ $88K Bid: 3% Ask: 3% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $21K	5% May 11 @ $88K Bid: 5% Ask: 5% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $794 Liquidity: $19K	7% May 12 @ $88K Bid: 6% Ask: 7% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $143 Liquidity: $13K
$86K	+4.9%	1%	0% May 6 @ $86K Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $351K Liquidity: $40K	2% May 7 @ $86K Bid: 2% Ask: 2% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $22K Liquidity: $27K	8% May 8 @ $86K Bid: 7% Ask: 8% Spread: 0.8% Volume: $21K Liquidity: $19K	8% May 9 @ $86K Bid: 7% Ask: 8% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $21K	10% May 10 @ $86K Bid: 9% Ask: 10% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $21K	13% May 11 @ $86K Bid: 12% Ask: 13% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $225 Liquidity: $12K	14% May 12 @ $86K Bid: 14% Ask: 15% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $19K
$84K	+2.4%	1%	3% May 6 @ $84K Bid: 3% Ask: 3% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $235K Liquidity: $32K	16% May 7 @ $84K Bid: 15% Ask: 17% Spread: 1.5% Volume: $13K Liquidity: $21K	24% May 8 @ $84K Bid: 24% Ask: 25% Spread: 1.4% Volume: $17K Liquidity: $18K	25% May 9 @ $84K Bid: 24% Ask: 26% Spread: 1.3% Volume: $12K Liquidity: $18K	28% May 10 @ $84K Bid: 27% Ask: 28% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $12K Liquidity: $21K	30% May 11 @ $84K Bid: 29% Ask: 30% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $569 Liquidity: $19K	33% May 12 @ $84K Bid: 31% Ask: 35% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $447 Liquidity: $12K
$82K	+0.0%	53%	63% May 6 @ $82K Bid: 63% Ask: 63% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $91K Liquidity: $31K	56% May 7 @ $82K Bid: 55% Ask: 57% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $19K Liquidity: $24K	56% May 8 @ $82K Bid: 55% Ask: 56% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $12K Liquidity: $19K	54% May 9 @ $82K Bid: 53% Ask: 55% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $20K	54% May 10 @ $82K Bid: 53% Ask: 54% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $21K	52% May 11 @ $82K Bid: 51% Ask: 53% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $521 Liquidity: $20K	52% May 12 @ $82K Bid: 50% Ask: 54% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $20K
$80K	-2.4%	97%	99% May 6 @ $80K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $148K Liquidity: $32K	91% May 7 @ $80K Bid: 90% Ask: 91% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $30K Liquidity: $22K	85% May 8 @ $80K Bid: 83% Ask: 86% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $31K Liquidity: $22K	80% May 9 @ $80K Bid: 79% Ask: 81% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $9K Liquidity: $19K	79% May 10 @ $80K Bid: 77% Ask: 80% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $19K	74% May 11 @ $80K Bid: 73% Ask: 75% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $929 Liquidity: $21K	73% May 12 @ $80K Bid: 71% Ask: 74% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $18K
$78K	-4.9%	99%	100% May 6 @ $78K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $284K Liquidity: $66K	99% May 7 @ $78K Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $50K Liquidity: $24K	96% May 8 @ $78K Bid: 95% Ask: 96% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $39K Liquidity: $22K	95% May 9 @ $78K Bid: 94% Ask: 96% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $10K Liquidity: $20K	93% May 10 @ $78K Bid: 92% Ask: 94% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $9K Liquidity: $19K	90% May 11 @ $78K Bid: 89% Ask: 91% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $19K	88% May 12 @ $78K Bid: 87% Ask: 89% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $985 Liquidity: $19K
$76K	-7.3%	99%	100% May 6 @ $76K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $290K Liquidity: $48K	100% May 7 @ $76K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $74K Liquidity: $37K	99% May 8 @ $76K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $85K Liquidity: $23K	99% May 9 @ $76K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $23K Liquidity: $21K	97% May 10 @ $76K Bid: 97% Ask: 98% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $13K Liquidity: $25K	96% May 11 @ $76K Bid: 95% Ask: 97% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $20K	94% May 12 @ $76K Bid: 93% Ask: 95% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $19K
$74K	-9.8%	99%	100% May 6 @ $74K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $201K Liquidity: $82K	100% May 7 @ $74K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $48K Liquidity: $41K	100% May 8 @ $74K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $42K Liquidity: $31K	99% May 9 @ $74K Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $15K Liquidity: $22K	99% May 10 @ $74K Bid: 98% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.8% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $21K	98% May 11 @ $74K Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $7K Liquidity: $20K	98% May 12 @ $74K Bid: 98% Ask: 98% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $19K
$72K	-12.2%	99%	100% May 6 @ $72K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $75K Liquidity: $101K	100% May 7 @ $72K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $102K Liquidity: $38K	100% May 8 @ $72K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $19K Liquidity: $23K	99% May 9 @ $72K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.8% Volume: $15K Liquidity: $23K	99% May 10 @ $72K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $9K Liquidity: $20K	99% May 11 @ $72K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $20K	99% May 12 @ $72K Bid: 98% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.5% Volume: $336 Liquidity: $12K
$70K	-14.6%	99%	100% May 6 @ $70K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $123K Liquidity: $170K	100% May 7 @ $70K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $127K Liquidity: $27K	100% May 8 @ $70K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $32K Liquidity: $36K	100% May 9 @ $70K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $15K Liquidity: $19K	99% May 10 @ $70K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.8% Volume: $11K Liquidity: $19K	99% May 11 @ $70K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $19K	—
$68K	-17.1%	99%	100% May 6 @ $68K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $39K Liquidity: $103K	100% May 7 @ $68K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $90K Liquidity: $29K	100% May 8 @ $68K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $27K Liquidity: $25K	100% May 9 @ $68K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $490 Liquidity: $14K	100% May 10 @ $68K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $914 Liquidity: $18K	—	—
$66K	-19.5%	99%	100% May 6 @ $66K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $17K Liquidity: $115K	100% May 7 @ $66K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $34K Liquidity: $21K	—	—	—	—	—

Up/Down Markets

Average probability of BTC going up per interval

Prediction History

How market probabilities evolved throughout the day vs BTC price

BTC Price

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